the tanner ba'

UPDATE: The Numbers

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Last weekend’s matches in the lower half of the Scottish Premiership did not “decided” anything, but they certainly brought a few things into clearer focus.  Above, the current table in the “Relegation Group,” below, the maximum points available to each of the six clubs:

  • Kilmarnock  50
  • Ross County  48
  • Dundee  45
  • Hamilton  44
  • Motherwell  44
  • Inverness  37

So, other than giving Ross County (and Dundee, I suppose) a nice boost, not much changed after the weekend’s matches.  Next weekend, however, could be a very different story.  The matches are:

  • Inverness V. Hamilton
  • Kilmarnock v. Dundee
  • Motherwell v. Ross County

First, a loss for Inverness basically buries them by reducing their maximum point total to 34, meaning that, because Hamilton had gained three points by beating them, they would only have the theoretical chance of catching Motherwell and Dundee.  I say “theoretical” because in order to avoid automatic relegation they’d have to win out (not likely) and see Motherwell and Dundee fail to earn three and two points, respectively, in their last three matches- more likely than Inverness winning out, but still not likely.

Second, a County win over Motherwell would bring them to 39 points with three to play meaning that automatic relegation is off the table- they would have two more points that Inverness’s maximum possible total of 37.  It would also reduce Motherwell’s maximum point total to 41.  Combine that with a Kilmarnock-Dundee draw and County rise to first place in the group based on equal points but a better goal differential.

The weekend can’t get here fast enough!!

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