the tanner ba'

Ross County F.C.: The Numbers Game

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Now that I’ve had a few days to stew about Ross County’s loss to St. Mirren over the weekend I think it’s time for another look at what it’s going to take for the club remain in the Premiership/avoid the relegation playoffs.  With two matches left in the season Kilmarnock, Ross County, and Motherwell are all still in danger of falling into the 11th place relegation playoff spot.  Let’s first look at the things that Ross County can do to control their own destiny.

  • The simplest thing would be to win their final two matches and end the season with 44 points.  Not only would this eliminate Motherwell (who cannot earn more than 41 points), but because County play Kilmarnock in the final match, they would leapfrog them and finish the season in 9th place.
  • Next would be for County to earn a win and a draw in their final two matches to reach 42 points.  Because Motherwell’s point total is capped at 41 points, County would be safe.  Because County face Kilmarnock in their final match there would also still be a chance for County to finish in 9th place.
  • If Motherwell were to win out and reach 41 points while County won only one of their remaining two matches both clubs would finish on 41 points and County would have to hope to hold on to their better goal differential.  This is a bit more nervy of a prospect, but more than likely the goal differential would remain in County’s favor.

From this point forward, County would need help from other clubs…

  • If County were to draw their final two matches to end on 40 points they would need Motherwell to no better than a win and a draw in their final two matches resulting in 39 points.
  • Finally, if County were earn a draw and a loss their remaining two matches and finish 0n 39 points they would need Motherwell to either earn a win and a draw (39 points) and hope to top them via goal differential, or for Motherwell to lose one of their final two matches, limiting them to 38 points and, again, hope they can preserve their goal differential.
  • Finally, if County lose out and end on 38 points they will need Motherwell to earn no more than one win from their final two matches to end on 38 points and hold out hope that goal differential gives them the edge.

All of that being said, it could be a simple as this:

Step 1:  Spoiler club St. Mirren beat Motherwell this weekend- Motherwell limited to 38 points.

Step 2:  County earn at least a draw against Hamilton this weekend- moving to at least 39 points.

Step 3: Profit.

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