the tanner ba'

Have I Lost My Mind!?

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Bear with me as I go through this step-by-step.  I am notoriously bad at math and tend to rush through things to reach the answer that I want rather than the one the numbers/facts support.

When the post-split fixtures began in the Scottish Premiership each club had 5 remaining matches to play, meaning that each club had a potential 15 points to earn.

After last weekend’s matches those numbers are reduced to 4 remaining matches to play, meaning that each club has a potential 12 points to earn.

So far, so good.

Let’s look at the Premiership table with those 4 matches and 12 points remaining-

The numbers don't lie, do they?

The numbers don’t lie, do they?

As has been discussed here previously, St. Mirren are dead and buried both in general terms and as they relate specifically to Ross County F.C..  They currently have 24 points, can only gain 12 more, for a maximum of 36.  They could potentially still trouble Motherwell F.C., but County already have 37, so no worries.

Motherwell are currently on 31 points with 12 more points available to them, so the best they can do is 43 points- still enough to catch Ross County.

Okay, this all still makes sense.

Now, if Ross County beat St. Mirren at the weekend they will have 40 points and a goal differential of no worse than -17.  If Motherwell lose to Kilmarnock, Motherwell’s best point total for the season is reduced to 40 points and their goal differential will be no better than -27.

That wouldn’t make anything “official,” but going forward from there County would need only a single point from their final three matches to mathematically eliminate Motherwell and guarantee safety.  I think they could even lose all of their final three matches (and Motherwell could win all of theirs) as long as the net amount of goals County conceded added to the net amount that Motherwell gained didn’t exceed 9.  That is, as long as both clubs end on level points but Ross County are 1 goal to the good in the differential column.

Please, somebody else do the math, I can’t believe that a season of hand-wringing might actually be all but wrapped-up as early as Saturday afternoon!

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3 comments on “Have I Lost My Mind!?

  1. Sculptor?!?
    April 28, 2015

    It seems based on your stipulations, a concession/addition of 10 makes them tied. So I think the concession/addition would have to be revised to max 9 in order to stay one ahead on the differential.

    Otherwise, as I understand table position maths, it appears you are correct (again based on your stipulations) that one point for County keeps them permanently ahead of Motherwell.

    Caveat: I’m pretty good at maths, but I’m not pretty good at footy. So you may want to find a true SPROTS nerd to verify this. 😉

  2. Kevin
    April 29, 2015

    You have done the math correctly.

    However, you failed to take into consideration the fourth variable in our relegation equation, and that is Kilmarnock.

    Since they are playing Motherwell: a Motherwell victory paired with a County victory would move us ahead of Kilmarnock on the table and close that goal differential gap as well.

    So as I do the math, County need only a win and a draw in any combination from their next four matches and we’re playing Premier League again next season!!!

    • weefuse
      April 29, 2015

      Kevin, I’m trying not to get too excited, but yes, there are a number of completely plausible (even “probable”) ways that County stay up without even having to do much.

      The best part is that McIntyre and Dodds have put together a squad that will be able to compete from the first week of the season, something that the Adamses were never able to do in the Premiership, hence all of the mid-season wheeling and dealing.

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